Leaders of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) are scheduled to meet with United States President Donald Trump in New York on Tuesday, coinciding with the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA). This crucial meeting occurs as the protracted US-Israel conflict with Iran extends into its seventh month, impacting various countries in the region that have faced significant repercussions despite not being participants in the conflict.
Since the battles commenced on February 28, Iran has conducted strikes against US bases throughout the Middle East. The conflict has notably strained the economies of Gulf nations, disrupting vital oil and gas exports and contributing to a global energy crisis. A memorandum of understanding aimed at de-escalation had initially raised hopes for a resolution, but talks collapsed last month due to disagreements over navigation rights in the strategically important Strait of Hormuz, which remains effectively shut.
The upcoming meeting holds particular importance as President Trump announced he is grappling with a significant decision regarding the ongoing war. Notably, senior Iranian officials are also attending the UNGA, adding another layer of complexity to the discussions.
The GCC nations, comprising Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, share a unified interest in seeking stability in regional security and a path towards de-escalation. Experts suggest that the Gulf states are likely to express deep concerns to President Trump about the repercussions of intensified military action against Iran. Their discussions will likely aim to advocate for concessions that would promote both diplomatic and peaceful resolutions in the region.
Despite a collaborative spirit, the GCC countries experience varied immediate impacts from the conflict. The UAE has continued oil exports via the Fujairah pipeline, circumventing the Strait of Hormuz, although at reduced volumes. In contrast, Qatar’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments have drastically declined, emphasizing its reliance on the Strait for energy transportation. Qatar’s Prime Minister has underscored the considerable economic fallout from the conflict, referring to it as a seismic shift.
Saudi Arabia faces its unique challenges as the Houthi rebels gain ground in Yemen, intensifying pressure on the Kingdom. As the GCC leaders engage with Trump, they may attempt to secure support against Houthi aggression while navigating broader geopolitical interests in the region.
While predictions regarding President Trump’s intentions remain speculative, there is a consensus among experts that he may seek to enhance GCC engagement against Iran in exchange for protective measures against the Houthis. With domestic political pressures looming, the discussions hold the potential for either escalation or diplomatic resolutions, underscoring the GCC’s pivotal role in fostering stability in this tumultuous landscape.
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