Kabul, a city with a population exceeding six million, faces an alarming water shortage that could render it the first modern metropolis to run out of water within the next five years. A report released by the nonprofit Mercy Corps highlights that the gradual depletion of groundwater in the Afghan capital has reached critical levels, driven largely by excessive extraction and the looming adverse effects of climate change.
The findings underscore a dire prediction: if current trends persist, Kabul’s vital aquifers could run dry by 2030, potentially displacing as many as three million residents. The report notes that nearly half of Kabul’s underground bore wells, which serve as the primary drinking water source, are already inactive, and up to 80 percent of existing groundwater may be contaminated due to sewage, arsenic, and salinity.
Experts attribute the city’s water crisis to a combination of factors including population growth, governance challenges, and climate-induced pressures. Since 2001, Kabul’s population has surged from under one million to roughly six million. This rapid urbanization, combined with two decades of military intervention, has strained local resources, as many displaced individuals flocked to the capital seeking stability.
Consequently, the gap between annual groundwater extraction and natural recharge stands at a staggering 44 million cubic meters annually. Assem Mayar, a water resource management expert, emphasizes the credibility of this forecast given the persistent trends observed in recent years. Najibullah Sadid, a senior researcher within the Afghanistan Water and Environment Professionals Network, suggests that while the timeline for depletion remains uncertain, the severity of the situation is evident, especially for the city’s most vulnerable populations.
The disparity between affluent residents and those in need is stark; wealthier citizens can afford to drill deeper boreholes, thereby exacerbating accessibility issues for less privileged families. Reports indicate that children are often seen collecting water, thereby sacrificing their educational opportunities.
Compounding these challenges are over 500 beverage and mineral water companies in Kabul, which heavily draw from the city’s limited groundwater resources. For example, Alokozay, a prominent Afghan soft drink manufacturer, is estimated to extract around one billion liters of water annually.
Climate change has intensified the crisis, with significant reductions in precipitation reported in recent years. Rivers, such as the Kabul, Paghman, and Logar, which traditionally replenish the aquifers, are reliant on snow and glacial melt from the Hindu Kush mountains. However, recent reports indicate that Afghanistan experienced only 45 to 60 percent of the average winter precipitation from October 2023 to January 2024 compared to prior years.
The longstanding effects of conflict and governance failures cast a shadow over possible solutions. Funding and humanitarian support have historically been diverted to security needs, limiting investment in essential infrastructure projects. Many initiatives aimed at promoting environmental resilience have stalled, with international sanctions further hindering development efforts.
Experts advocate for an urgent focus on improving Kabul’s water infrastructure, proposing initiatives like artificial groundwater recharge systems and the construction of check dams to capture rainwater. However, these ambitions are complicated by Afghanistan’s constrained access to technology and financial resources resulting from ongoing global isolation.
Addressing the water crisis is imperative not only for Kabul’s future stability but also for the health and well-being of its residents, particularly as climate change continues to transform the region. Enhancing water resource management and reinforcing infrastructure are key steps toward fostering sustainable development and addressing the fundamental needs of the population.
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