Skardu, Pakistan – The peaceful night in Roshan Valley was shattered by a sudden explosion that startled Wasiyat Khan, a local shepherd who typically grazes his livestock in the elevated lands of northern Pakistan’s mountainous Gilgit-Baltistan region. Initially believing a landslide was imminent, Wasiyat quickly realized the sound heralded a more urgent concern: the bursting of a nearby glacier.
As chaos unfolded, Wasiyat sprang into action, ensuring that his family found immediate safety while grappling with the harsh realities of their temporary shelter being engulfed by glacial floodwaters. With the village, home to approximately 300 residents, at risk, he dashed across boulders to secure a mobile phone signal and successfully alerted the villagers to evacuate. Remarkably, thanks to his timely warning, no lives were lost, although they returned to discover that their homes had been significantly damaged.
Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) are a recurring phenomenon in this region, recognized for hosting an estimated 13,000 glaciers. As global temperatures continue to rise, Pakistan has emerged as one of the nations most vulnerable to climate change, with the country’s disaster management authority predicting an intensified impact from glacial melt this year. In particular, a forecasted reduction in snowfall raises concerns over rapid glacier retreat, further heightening the risk of GLOFs.
The government is deploying early warning systems (EWS) to bolster disaster preparedness, aiming to protect lives and infrastructure from such climate-related challenges. These systems leverage an interconnected network of sensors and gauges, relaying real-time environmental data to meteorologists. Multiple EWS sites throughout Gilgit-Baltistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa now monitor conditions, providing critical early warnings of impending hazards.
However, many residents prioritize traditional knowledge over technological measures. Individuals like Mohammad Hussain, another shepherd from Skardu Valley, have demonstrated the effectiveness of human intuition, quickly notifying their communities of impending floods through established warning signals. Such indigenous systems of natural observations and community-based alerts not only foster resilience but also serve as a significant complement to official early warning mechanisms.
Despite the advancement of technology, widespread skepticism remains regarding EWS effectiveness due to past equipment failures and miscommunication. Many villagers advocate for a system that integrates local knowledge and response capabilities more effectively.
Pakistan’s climate change minister has highlighted the challenges posed by increasingly severe glacial flooding, with the World Bank noting that the nation has endured nearly 90 GLOFs in just three years. The local communities’ reliance on both their traditional wisdom and early warning systems reflects the necessity for comprehensive approaches to adaptation.
In acknowledgment of their bravery and quick thinking, Wasiyat Khan and his fellow shepherds received recognition from the government, underscoring the critical importance of community vigilance and interconnected efforts in navigating the complexities of climate change in the region. As environmental patterns grow more unpredictable, the partnership between technology and human insight remains vital in safeguarding vulnerable populations.
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