Portugal’s ruling center-right Democratic Alliance (AD) appears set to secure the highest percentage of votes in the nation’s early parliamentary elections. However, preliminary exit polls indicate it may fall short of achieving a definitive majority. This election, held on a Sunday, marks the third electoral cycle within just as many years and was prompted after Prime Minister Luis Montenegro’s minority government faced a crisis of confidence in March. Opposition parties raised queries over his integrity concerning the operations of his family’s consultancy firm. Montenegro has firmly denied any allegations of wrongdoing, and public sentiment seems to reflect a rejection of the opposition’s assertions, according to various opinion surveys.

The election also spotlighted pressing societal concerns such as housing and immigration, continuing a trend of delicate governance that has characterized Portugal over the past decade. Notably, the only government in this period to secure a parliamentary majority unexpectedly collapsed halfway through its term last year.

Early forecasts by leading Portuguese television channels—SIC, RTP, and TVI—indicate that the AD is projected to capture between 29% and 35.1% of the popular vote. While this would represent the largest share of votes, it echoes the results of their previous election in March 2024, where a similar lack of a parliamentary majority was observed.

At a polling station in the northern city of Espinho, local voters, including 77-year-old Irene Medeiros, expressed concerns about the prospects of continued uncertainty. Her sentiments are echoed by others who seek a stable governance structure moving forward. The exit polls also reveal that Montenegro’s principal challenger, the center-left Socialist Party (PS), is expected to gain between 19.4% and 26% of the votes. This is nearly neck-and-neck with the far-right Chega party, which has indicated an upward trajectory with anticipated results between 19.5% and 25.5%, a significant growth from their previous share in 2024. Montenegro has made it clear that he aims to distance his party from any alliances with Chega.

The Democratic Alliance could gain between 85 and 96 parliamentary seats, yet would still require partnership arrangements with smaller factions to reach the required majority of 116 seats in Portugal’s 230-member parliament. The formal results from this election are expected to be disseminated by midnight local time (23:00 GMT).

Historically, the political landscape in Portugal has been dominated by two main parties—the Social Democrats, who lead the AD, and the Socialist Party—alternating in governance for the past 50 years. Recently, a rise in public frustration with the traditional ruling parties has prompted a growing demand for fresh political alternatives.

Political analyst Antonio Costa Pinto remarked that the new parliament is likely to mirror past assemblies, emphasizing the unpredictability of government longevity, which will depend heavily on external global dynamics and the AD’s capacity for coalition-building. Following his voting experience, Montenegro expressed optimism regarding the potential for stability, asserting that the search for a durable solution lies with the electorate’s choices.

The prospect of another minority government in Portugal would potentially prolong the nation’s period of political instability, a concern shared by many in a country of 10.6 million citizens.

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