New Delhi, India — In September 2024, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi addressed a rally of supporters with a bold claim that his ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) would transform Jammu and Kashmir into a “terror-free” haven for tourists. This vision aimed to promote stability and tranquility within the region.

However, this promise faced a significant challenge when, on April 22, an armed group tragically attacked tourists in the resort town of Pahalgam, resulting in the loss of 25 lives, including a local pony rider. The incident intensified the already delicate relations between India and Pakistan, with New Delhi alleging that the attackers had ties to Islamabad, a claim Pakistan has denied.

The armed forces of both nations, each equipped with nuclear capabilities, have exchanged fire along the disputed border for three consecutive days. In a consequential move, India has suspended its participation in the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), a vital agreement that Pakistan relies on for its water security, prompting Islamabad to threaten the abandonment of prior peace accords. In an atmosphere charged with tensions, both countries have expelled diplomats and military personnel, alongside numerous civilians.

In the wake of this incident, the Indian government intensified military actions within the region, targeting the homes of families linked to suspected militants. Security forces conducted extensive raids, resulting in over 1,500 arrests in the immediate aftermath, marking this attack as the deadliest to tourists in a quarter-century.

Despite efforts to reclaim the narrative surrounding Modi’s policies, experts believe that recent events signal a troubling reality for the BJP’s approach to Kashmir. The ramifications of the Pahalgam attack have cast doubt on the government’s vision of a “New Kashmir.” Political scientist Sumantra Bose noted that the incident revealed substantial flaws in Modi’s strategy, which now appears to be at an impasse.

Modi’s administration has faced scrutiny since it revoked the semi-autonomous status of Jammu and Kashmir in August 2019 without input from local stakeholders. This action was justified by the government as a necessary step to fully integrate the region into India. Although the revocation aimed to eradicate separatist sentiments, it was met with widespread civil unrest and criticism for curbing freedoms and imposing severe restrictions.

For many in the region, including the recently elected Chief Minister Omar Abdullah, the emphasis on tourism as a barometer of stability has become a contentious issue. Abdullah previously cautioned that such rhetoric could inadvertently endanger tourists. He emphasized that portraying Kashmir’s situation as normalcy through tourism statistics could result in an inauspicious environment for visitors.

While Modi’s government has promoted tourism as a sign of returning normalcy, the alarming reality faced by the people of Kashmir and the rising tensions have distracted from authentic progress towards peace. Analysts warn that the BJP’s focus on a security-driven approach has significant implications not only for India’s Kashmir policy but also for its dealings with Pakistan.

The recent attack unveiled the complexities underlying the Kashmir issue and underscored the necessity for a more nuanced approach that involves dialogue and cooperation with local communities. Political commentators argue that unless the Indian government engages meaningfully with the voices of Kashmiris, reaching a sustainable resolution to ongoing violence will remain elusive.

As India navigates this challenging tableau, questions about the future of the IWT loom large, and the Modi administration’s tactical moves will be closely watched, especially in light of upcoming elections.

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